Pete Alonso’s Free Agency: 4 Reasons Mets Star May Miss Big Payday

Pete Alonso Free Agency: Four Reasons Why Mets Slugger Might Not Get a Big Payday

Since joining the New York Mets in 2019, Pete Alonso has cemented himself as one of MLB’s most powerful hitters. As the first baseman heads into free agency for the first time in his career, many fans and analysts are speculating on his future and how much the Mets slugger will command in the free agent market. Yet, despite Alonso’s notable contributions, there are several reasons why the power hitter may not secure the lucrative long-term contract some expect. Below, we explore four reasons Pete Alonso’s free agency could bring lower offers than anticipated.

1. Pete Alonso’s 2024 Season Showed Signs of Decline

In 2024, Pete Alonso delivered a solid season but recorded his lowest home run total in any full season, finishing with 34 home runs and a .459 slugging percentage—well below his career averages. As a power hitter, Alonso’s value primarily lies in his ability to slug, and his decline in slugging ability raises questions. His 2024 strikeout and ground-ball rates increased, impacting his ability to deliver the high-quality contact needed for home runs. With MLB teams now placing a premium on future performance over past numbers, Alonso’s free agency prospects might be affected by his recent dip in output.

2. Right-Handed First Basemen Face Limited Longevity

As a right-handed batter and thrower, Alonso faces certain positional limitations in the free agent market. Historically, right/right first basemen have a challenging aging curve, with many seeing declines in productivity after their early 30s. For instance, players like Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson—also right/right sluggers—experienced significant drop-offs by age 32. With Alonso turning 30 this December, the first baseman market might not favor him for a big contract, as teams could hesitate to commit long-term to a player profile that has shown difficulty sustaining elite performance.

3. First Basemen Contracts Are Less Lucrative

The MLB market for first basemen has evolved, and large contracts for the position are becoming rare. The last first baseman to secure a deal over $200 million was Miguel Cabrera in 2014, and only a handful of players—Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, and Eric Hosmer—have received contracts above $130 million since 2016. While Pete Alonso is expected to earn a substantial contract, the market dynamics for first basemen suggest it may fall short of the record-breaking numbers seen in other positions.

4. Limited Demand for a First Baseman/DH

When considering the 2024 free agent market for first basemen, it’s clear that demand is limited. Many big spenders, including the Dodgers (who have Freddie Freeman), Phillies, and Braves, are already set at first base or designated hitter. Pete Alonso’s free agency may attract a few interested teams, such as the Astros and possibly the Giants, but the pool of potential suitors is small. Additionally, Christian Walker, another free-agent first baseman, could be an appealing option for teams seeking a shorter-term investment, as Walker has shown comparable offensive production with stronger defensive skills.

In summary, Pete Alonso’s free agency may face hurdles due to recent performance declines, positional limitations, market trends, and limited team needs. While Alonso is a skilled power hitter and beloved Mets slugger, the reality of his situation in the first baseman market may result in a contract that falls short of expectations. Nevertheless, as the offseason unfolds, Alonso will remain a key figure in MLB free agency 2024, with teams assessing whether his skills justify a premium payout.